The research design engineered to estimate the impact of the 2016/17 budget reforms is a microsimulation model called STINMOD+. Microsimulation modelling applies the Commonwealth Government tax and transfer rules to data at the individual and household levels. This means complex Government Tax/Transfer policies can be modelled, incorporating complex interactions between different policies. The same kind of modelling systems are used extensively by the Commonwealth Government in Australia and worldwide.
STINMOD+ is classified as a static microsimulation model, which means it estimates the ‘day after’ impact of a policy. It measures the impact of the policy without any change in behaviour, for example, a decision to change working hours after a tax change. This is the same type of model used by the Commonwealth to estimate the impact of proposed tax/transfer policies. One advantage of this model is that it provides quick estimates of short run effects for the policy changes that do not change the economic structure significantly. However, it should not be used to estimate long term effects or for policy changes that are likely to change economic agents’ behaviour.
STINMOD+ is the successor of the original STINMOD model, a pioneering modelling system since the mid-1990s, widely used by various Commonwealth Government agencies. The latest model STINMOD+ has incorporated many new modelling techniques and has greatly improved the efficiency and the maintainability of the original code. The overhaul also makes it easier for other models we are developing to interact with STINMOD+ for future research. This has been a significant upgrade to the original STINMOD model, and will allow NATSEM to continue as one of the leading independent economic modellers in Australia.
More information on microsimulation modelling can be found on the International Microsimulation Association (of which NATSEM is an affiliate) website, and in the Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. In particular the chapter led by NATSEM staff members Dr Jinjing Li and Professor Ann Harding: Li , O’Donoghue , Loughrey and Harding (2014), Static Models, in O’Donoghue (ed.) Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling (Contributions to Economic Analysis, Volume 293), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp.47 – 75.
STINMOD+ is one of the very few comprehensive and working tax/transfer microsimulation models in Australia, and plays an important role in conducting independent modelling of Tax/Transfer policies in Australia. NATSEM is proud to be part of the international microsimulation community, contributing to and learning from the international literature in this field.
Statement of Independence
NATSEM has not received any funding for the modelling of the 2016/17 budget presented on this website. All modelling conducted by NATSEM for the budget 2016 has been funded internally by the University of Canberra as a service to the Australian community. NATSEM has no affiliation with any political party.
For more information about STINMOD+, please contact Dr Jinjing Li on (02) 6201 2776 or by email firstname.lastname@example.org